Currency market
The rouble strengthened 4.93% against the currency basket over the month
Over the month the dollar, euro and yuan fell: 4.44%, 6.52% and 4.07%. USD/RUB volatility - low.
The basket is yuan 40%, dollar 40%, euro 20%.
| Currencies | 1 wk | 1 mo | 3 months | since Jan | 1 year | 52-week range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/RUB US dollar | −0.72% | −4.44% | +1.24% | +1.37% | +1.75% | 70.45 – 87.08 |
| EUR/RUB Euro | −1.50% | −6.52% | −1.17% | −3.66% | −2.55% | 81.78 – 100.92 |
| CNY/RUB Chinese yuan | −1.49% | −4.07% | +2.28% | +7.03% | +8.21% | 10.40 – 12.97 |
Exporters sell in foreign currency and pay costs in roubles: when the rouble weakens, rouble revenue grows faster than costs.
Importers have the opposite exposure: purchases in foreign currency, revenue in roubles. A weaker rouble raises their cost base, and they cannot pass all of it into selling prices.
MGNT
Magnitimported goods cost more to buy
AFLT
Aeroflotaircraft leasing and maintenance in foreign currency
MVID
M.Videoequipment is bought in foreign currency
HNFG
Hendersonfabric and tailoring paid in foreign currency
MTSS
MTSnetwork equipment is imported
RTKM
Rostelecomequipment purchases in foreign currency
Central bank key rate
The current rate, the next meeting, the path the market expects and the history of decisions since 2013.
Swap curve
What the market is pricing into the rate up to two years out: ROISfix quotes, forwards and money market stress.
Positioning by currency
Open interest in MOEX currency futures: retail traders against banks and funds, and the history of the skew.
The exchange rate is MOEX data - actual trade prices: for the yuan the CNY000000TOD spot; for the dollar and the euro the spot has not traded since 13.06.2024, so the rate comes from the perpetual future, while the earlier history is built from the spot market. The rouble index is a FairValue reference calculation from the CBR's official rates with fixed basket weights; it is not the Bank of Russia's official index. Volatility and seasonality describe the past and do not predict the future. Not an individual investment recommendation.