Bitcoin cycles
This section covers the long-term behaviour of bitcoin from its daily price series. Four views are presented: the price path from each of the four halvings as a multiple of the price on the halving day, monthly changes by year with the median for each month, annual results together with the deepest drawdown inside the year, and a list of declines beyond 30% with peak and trough dates, the length of the fall and the time to recovery.
Cycle day
921
after the 2024 halving
Since the halving
×1.2
bitcoin $79 872
The previous cycle on this day
×2.0
from its own starting point
Until the next halving
537
days, ~04.2028
History depth
15 years
since 08.2011
Halving cyclesthe price path from each halving, overlaid on one scale
Price path from the halving
the halving-day price is the unit, the scale is logarithmic
Cycle 2012: halving 28.11.2012 through $12 -
peak ×93 ($1 132), on day 921 it was ×18 ($223)
Cycle 2016: halving 09.07.2016 through $648 -
peak ×29 ($19 103), on day 921 it was ×5.5 ($3 592)
Cycle 2020: halving 11.05.2020 through $8 562 -
peak ×8.4 ($71 620), on day 921 it was ×2.0 ($16 700)
Cycle 2024: halving 20.04.2024 through $64 941 -
day 921 under way, now ×1.2 ($79 872)
What this is
The price move after each halving. Horizontally - days from the halving, vertically - how many times the price is above the cycle's starting point.
What it shows
Whether the current cycle resembles previous ones and where in them bitcoin found its peak.
Currently
The dot on the orange line is today's cycle day. The completed cycles each went their own way: they are a reference point, not a route.
Month by month
Heatmap of monthly changes
bitcoin, % per calendar month
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011from sep | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | −39.8 | −31.5 | −3.3 | +43.6 | −43 |
| 2012 | +15.7 | −5.8 | −1.8 | +2.0 | +3.4 | +27.9 | +40.4 | +9.5 | +20.3 | −10.0 | +13.0 | +6.5 | +189 |
| 2013 | +54.5 | +63.9 | +186.8 | +45.5 | −8.6 | −30.0 | +9.8 | +30.2 | −1.4 | +61.2 | +450.0 | −34.6 | +5429 |
| 2014 | +9.7 | −31.3 | −17.6 | −1.3 | +39.9 | +2.1 | −9.2 | −17.7 | −18.4 | −13.6 | +11.5 | −14.9 | −56 |
| 2015 | −32.4 | +16.9 | −3.6 | −3.3 | −3.1 | +14.7 | +8.3 | −19.2 | +2.8 | +31.3 | +21.4 | +14.4 | +34 |
| 2016 | −14.5 | +18.1 | −4.7 | +8.1 | +18.6 | +25.6 | −6.6 | −8.5 | +6.6 | +14.6 | +6.5 | +30.2 | +124 |
| 2017 | −0.2 | +23.6 | −10.1 | +26.2 | +70.2 | +7.3 | +15.8 | +65.4 | −7.3 | +47.6 | +52.2 | +39.4 | +1319 |
| 2018 | −25.0 | +0.4 | −33.0 | +33.5 | −19.0 | −14.6 | +21.0 | −9.3 | −5.5 | −3.8 | −36.6 | −8.4 | −73 |
| 2019 | −7.3 | +11.1 | +7.6 | +29.7 | +60.8 | +26.9 | −7.1 | −4.9 | −13.5 | +10.3 | −17.5 | −4.6 | +94 |
| 2020 | +30.0 | −8.9 | −24.8 | +34.5 | +9.6 | −3.3 | +24.0 | +2.8 | −7.5 | +28.0 | +42.8 | +46.9 | +302 |
| 2021 | +14.4 | +36.4 | +30.1 | −1.8 | −35.4 | −5.9 | +18.3 | +13.6 | −7.0 | +39.9 | −7.1 | −18.8 | +60 |
| 2022 | −16.8 | +12.2 | +5.4 | −17.3 | −15.5 | −37.3 | +16.8 | −13.9 | −3.1 | +5.5 | −16.2 | −3.6 | −64 |
| 2023 | +39.8 | +0.1 | +23.0 | +2.7 | −6.9 | +12.0 | −4.1 | −11.3 | +3.9 | +28.5 | +8.9 | +12.1 | +156 |
| 2024 | +0.7 | +43.6 | +16.6 | −14.9 | +11.3 | −7.1 | +3.0 | −8.7 | +7.4 | +11.0 | +37.2 | −2.9 | +121 |
| 2025 | +9.5 | −17.7 | −2.1 | +14.1 | +11.1 | +2.4 | +8.0 | −6.5 | +5.4 | −4.0 | −17.5 | −3.1 | −6 |
| 2026under way | −10.2 | −14.8 | +1.6 | +12.0 | −3.5 | −20.4 | +7.3 | +25.0 | +6.4 | −4.4 | · | · | −9 |
| Median | +0.7 | +11.1 | −1.8 | +8.1 | +3.4 | +2.1 | +8.3 | −6.5 | −2.2 | +11.0 | +8.9 | −2.9 |
What this is
The price change for each calendar month. At the bottom - the month's median across all years and the count of years it closed up. The current month is outlined and still running.
What it shows
Whether months have a stable character. Averages cannot be trusted here - one freak year flatters any month, so the summary uses the median.
Currently
In October the median of past years is +11.0%, up in 10 of 15 years.
Change by calendar month
the median across all years of the series and the number of years with a gain
+0.7%
Jan
8 of 15
+11.1%
Feb
10 of 15
−1.8%
Mar
7 of 15
+8.1%
Apr
10 of 15
+3.4%
May
8 of 15
+2.1%
Jun
8 of 15
+8.3%
Jul
11 of 15
−6.5%
Aug
6 of 15
−2.2%
Sep
7 of 16
+11.0%
Oct
10 of 15
+8.9%
Nov
9 of 15
−2.9%
Dec
7 of 15
What this is
The median price change for a calendar month across all years of the series - the same figure as in the bottom row of the heatmap. A bar pointing up means a positive median, down means negative, and its height is proportional to the absolute value. Below each month is the number of years in which it closed with a gain.
What it shows
There are at most fifteen observations per month, so the differences between months do not form a stable pattern. A count of 7 out of 15 means the month closed up and down about equally often.
Currently
The highest median is in February (+11.1%), the lowest in August (−6.5%).
Results by year
Every year and its worst moment
the year's result and the deepest drawdown inside it
2011from sep 2011
−43%
drawdown −75%
2012
+189%
drawdown −41%
2013
+5429%
drawdown −71%
2014
−56%
drawdown −66%
2015
+34%
drawdown −46%
2016
+124%
drawdown −30%
2017
+1319%
drawdown −35%
2018
−73%
drawdown −81%
2019
+94%
drawdown −49%
2020
+302%
drawdown −54%
2021
+60%
drawdown −53%
2022
−64%
drawdown −67%
2023
+156%
drawdown −20%
2024
+121%
drawdown −26%
2025
−6%
drawdown −32%
2026year to date
−9%
drawdown −40%
What this is
The price change over a calendar year and the worst fall from a high inside that same year.
What it shows
Bitcoin's true range: neighbouring years differ by hundreds of percentage points, and deep drawdowns happen even in years that closed up.
Currently
2026: −9% year to date, a −40% drawdown along the way.
Big drawdowns
Falls deeper than 30%
from peak to trough and back
| Peak | Trough | Depth | Descent | Return to the peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06.10.2025 · $124 740 | 30.06.2026 · $58 566 | −53% | 267 days | not back yet |
| 08.11.2021 · $67 526 | 21.11.2022 · $15 781 | −77% | 378 days | 847 days |
| 13.04.2021 · $63 575 | 20.07.2021 · $29 790 | −53% | 98 days | 189 days |
| 16.12.2017 · $19 103 | 15.12.2018 · $3 212 | −83% | 364 days | 1074 days |
| 01.09.2017 · $4 835 | 14.09.2017 · $3 189 | −34% | 13 days | 41 day |
| 11.06.2017 · $2 954 | 16.07.2017 · $1 918 | −35% | 35 days | 55 days |
| 04.12.2013 · $1 132 | 14.01.2015 · $171 | −85% | 406 days | 1177 days |
| 09.04.2013 · $229 | 06.07.2013 · $66 | −71% | 88 days | 210 days |
| 16.08.2012 · $13 | 19.08.2012 · $8 | −40% | 3 days | 112 days |
| 23.08.2011 · $12 | 20.10.2011 · $2 | −81% | 58 days | 356 days |
What this is
Every time the bitcoin price fell more than 30% from a high: peak and trough dates, depth, length of the descent and time to regain the previous peak.
What it shows
The cost of holding the asset: drops this deep have happened regularly; the worst was −85% with the bottom in 2015.
Currently
The latest episode is still open: the price has not returned to its previous high.
Next
Market overview
Sentiment, bitcoin dominance, the day's leaders and a heatmap - what is happening in the market right now.
Open →Coins
The top 250 in a table, a heatmap and market sectors - three views of one list, with filters and a risk ranking.
Open →Calculated on our daily bitcoin price history. Past cycles promise nothing about the future: this page is informational, not an investment recommendation.