A zero-sum game
Every future is a deal between a buyer and a seller. If retail is long, the other side is held by banks, exporters and funds. The two sides are always equal in size.
Positioning by currency
Retail traders against large participants - banks, exporters and funds - in Moscow Exchange currency futures. Snapshot as at 12.10.2026.
USD/RUB · retail
63% / 37%
buy / sell
EUR/RUB · retail
41% / 59%
buy / sell
CNY/RUB · retail
82% / 18%
buy / sell
Open interest
10 679 812
contracts, perpetual futures
Retail traders are heavily tilted towards gains the yuan
82% of their positions are in buys - a one-sided skew. The other side is held by banks and funds.
Data snapshot
12.10.2026
What the positions showopen interest in MOEX futures
The direction of retail positions
Excess of buying
On average across perpetual contracts 62% of retail trader positions are buying the currency and 38% are selling.
USD 63% · EUR 41% · CNY 82%
How unusual the skew is
Normal
The retail skew in CNY is now higher than on 26% of days over the last 4 months.
CNY: skew 34.1% of open interest · percentile 26
Open interest
−2.3%
The change in the total number of open contracts over the day across all currencies. A rise means new money is coming into the market, a fall means positions are being closed.
10 679 812 contracts in total
Who is larger
×60
How many times the average position of a large participant exceeds that of a retail trader (CNY): 44 494 against 742 contracts per account.
CNY: individuals 742 · legal entities 44 494 contracts
Positioning against the ratethe retail skew and the exchange rate on one time scale
The retail skew and the rate
What this is
The blue area is retail traders' net skew in the perpetual future: how far buying outweighs selling, as a percentage of open interest. The line is the currency's rate against the rouble.
What it shows
How retail positioning lines up with the actual rate. If the skew reaches the edges of its range and the rate then turns, retail is systematically on the wrong side of the move.
Currently
Contracts by currencyperpetual and quarterly futures
USD/RUB
US dollar
Perpetual (USDRUBF)
419 333
open interest −1.1%
Retail traders show a moderate tilt towards USD rising
Participants the number of accounts and the average position size
Retail traders' excess of buying over selling for the month. Above the dashed line - more buying, below - more selling.
Quarterly (Si)
4 670 403
open interest +0.2%
Retail traders show a strong tilt towards USD rising
a strong skew
Participants the number of accounts and the average position size
Retail traders' excess of buying over selling for the month. Above the dashed line - more buying, below - more selling.
EUR/RUB
Euro
Perpetual (EURRUBF)
48 128
open interest −0.2%
Retail traders show a moderate tilt towards EUR falling
Participants the number of accounts and the average position size
Retail traders' excess of buying over selling for the month. Above the dashed line - more buying, below - more selling.
Quarterly (Eu)
823 705
open interest +0.3%
Retail traders show a strong tilt towards EUR rising
a strong skew
Participants the number of accounts and the average position size
Retail traders' excess of buying over selling for the month. Above the dashed line - more buying, below - more selling.
CNY/RUB
Chinese yuan
Perpetual (CNYRUBF)
10 212 351
open interest −2.4%
Retail traders show a strong tilt towards CNY rising
a strong skew
Participants the number of accounts and the average position size
Retail traders' excess of buying over selling for the month. Above the dashed line - more buying, below - more selling.
Quarterly (CR)
18 331 455
open interest +0.5%
Retail traders show a moderate tilt towards CNY rising
Participants the number of accounts and the average position size
Retail traders' excess of buying over selling for the month. Above the dashed line - more buying, below - more selling.
How to read this
The skew is not a trade signal
A strong one-sided retail skew reflects sentiment but does not set the turning point: a skew can persist for months.
What else moves the rate
Positioning is only one factor. The CBR rate, funding cost and the tax period affect the rouble more.
FX market →
The source is the MOEX futoi analytical product (open interest split by individuals and legal entities), a daily snapshot after clearing. The rate on the "positioning against the rate" chart is the CBR's official rate for the same date. Not an individual investment recommendation.