Segezha Group 002P-05R
30.95%
yield to worst (YTW)
rich versus the group-135 bp
Price
95.85%
1 011 ₽ with accrued interest
Coupon
25.00%
2×/yr
Put/call
15.02.2028
10.8 y to maturity
Duration
1.1 y
price −0.9% per +1 pp of rate
Premium over OFZ
+1680 bp
over OFZ 14.15% at 1.13 yr
Credit risk
ruB
Expert RA · high
Price and premium over OFZhow the bond has traded and how much it pays over OFZ
Bond price, % of par
Incomewhat your investment will earn and when payments arrive
Yield calculator
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Effective YTM under the MOEX convention (ACT/365). The calculation runs to the put (15.02.2028) - redemption at par on the put date; coupons after the put have not been announced yet. The fair price discounts the cash flows at the yield of a comparable credit class (a reference point).
Expected income and buffer · for the year
Over the key rate+1695 bp
Roll-down (year)+0.16%
Expected income+31.11%
Safety buffer>3000 bp
Cash flows
| Date | Coupon, ₽ | Principal, ₽ | Total, ₽ |
|---|
Coupon payments and principal repayment by date for one bond. On the chart, coupons use the left axis and face value the right one. Coupons from 10.08.2028 have not been announced and are shown at the current rate as a forecast.
Issuer credit qualityrating, financials, debt, default-risk adjustment and the FairValue score
Credit risk
High
issuer rating B · default probability ≈ 11%/yr
Altman Z″ -4.37 · Distress
issuer balance sheet · RAS 2025
2.4
21
2.1
22
0.0
23
0.2
24
-4.4
25
From 2021 to 2025 the Z″ fell by 6.79 - the accounts are deteriorating before the rating reflects it
Interest coverage0.0×
Liabilities to equity1.0×
Return on sales24.3%
Figures are from the issuer's RAS statements for 2025. RAS covers a single legal entity without its subsidiaries. If the issuer is a holding company, the main business is run by subsidiaries, and the group's position is better reflected in consolidated IFRS statements.
Conclusion: Balance-sheet metrics (Altman Z″) agree with the credit rating.
Group financials and issuer debt
The issuer's debt outstanding
Circulating98.9 bn ₽of which 14.13 bn ₽ in FX (CNY)
Issues12 +3 in FX
Due within a year79%
Cost of rouble debt18.11% market 35.04%
2026
2027
2028
2029
in roublesin FX, at the Bank of Russia rate
Issues with a put are assigned to the put date rather than to maturity. All of the issuer's bonds are in the section “Issuer curve”.
Risk-adjusted yield
20.36%
without the adjustment — 30.95%: expected default losses reduce the yield by 1059 bp (1 bp = 0.01 pp)
The probability of default is 11% a year: the historical average for this rating. In a default, holders recover 30% of face value on average.
What the spread over OFZ is made of
Expected loss 1059 bp
Exit cost 14 bp
Risk premium 607 bp
FairValue score
Attractiveness score38/100
How the score is built
Cheap vs norm
26
weight 15%
Cheap vs group
8
weight 15%
Safety buffer
98
weight 25%
Liquidity
31
weight 25%
Credit quality
2
weight 20%
Peersthe issuer's other bonds and similar bonds of other issuers
Issuer curve
8 issues · Segezha.
This bond is
cheaper than its own curve (yield higher by 96 bp: an issue premium)
duration, years →
● this bond · yield, % ↑
Segezha Group 004P-01R0.2 y21.56%
Segezha Group 003P-02R0.5 y32.94%
Segezha Group 002P-04R0.6 y35.86%
Segezha Group 002P-03R0.7 y35.33%
Segezha Group 003P-06R1.1 y28.90%
Segezha Group 002P-05R1.1 y30.95%
Segezha Group 003P-08R1.3 y28.34%
Segezha Group 003P-10R1.5 y28.07%
History and alternativewhat the bond returned in the past and a comparison with a deposit
A bond or a deposit?
This bond
31.0%
the rate is fixed for 1.3 y
Deposit
13.1%
top-10 banks, decade 2 of October 2026
Liquidity fund
13.6%
floats with the CBR key rate
The yield is 17.9 pp above the deposit rate, and that difference is payment for the issuer's credit risk: a deposit is insured by the DIA (up to 1.4m ₽), a liquidity fund invests in short risk-free instruments, and a bond can default. The issue's credit assessment is in the credit risk traffic light above.
A pre-tax comparison. Bond coupons are taxed at 13% personal income tax — see the “After-tax yield” row in the bond parameters (≈ 26.0%). Deposit interest is taxed above a tax-free allowance; a liquidity fund qualifies for the long-term holding relief after 3 years.
Issue parametersterms, buying now, yields and spreads
Terms
Coupon25.00% a year · 2 payments/yr
Coupon, ₽124.66
Par1 000 ₽
Maturity30.07.2037 · 10.8 y
Put/call15.02.2028
Issue
Listing level3
Issue size10 bn ₽
Lot1 units
Buying now
Order book95.86 / 96.17%spread 0.31% (≈27 bp of yield)
Cost of entry≈ 161 ₽ per 100,000 ₽ · quote 27.10 20:00
Accrued interest, ₽52.05 as of 28.10.2026
Average daily turnover1.2 mn ₽
Trades today50 · turnover 206.5 k ₽
Yields
Current yield26.08%
Simple yield27.90%
Yield to maturity if the 25.00% rate holds27.83%
After-tax yield26.03% / 25.28% at 15%
Spreads and valuation
Z-spread over OFZ+1672 bp
Spread over swaps (I)+1658 bp
Z-spread over swaps+1658 bp
Peer assessmentRich -135 bp versus the group
MOEX ISS data. Not an individual investment recommendation. Yields, spreads and the fair price are calculated from the exchange quote and are for reference: a real trade goes through at the order book price and depends on the issue's liquidity. The calculations exclude broker and exchange fees; tax is shown on a separate line and simplified (no accrued interest at purchase).